Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 82815.474145 87425.967976 92035.982241 96988.117241 102153.914179 107380.358531 113064.523357
2025-02-23 75137.941809 82192.575186 89445.434795 97449.167262 106023.409274 114922.870032 124847.748616
2025-03-02 69459.311701 78151.922576 87286.672090 97580.672992 108836.728599 120749.337658 134288.317800
2025-03-09 65896.295028 75898.603733 86601.658663 98871.884423 112513.915231 127179.643479 144101.382662
2025-03-16 61973.665887 72895.321056 84772.657533 98597.982849 114195.624363 131194.803192 151067.865237
2025-03-23 59733.178639 71568.693136 84623.373788 100021.639207 117614.931667 137015.725849 159951.751843
2025-03-30 57484.887956 70066.528877 84127.361904 100915.764430 120320.639586 141949.235115 167779.568093
2025-04-06 55057.631974 68212.717744 83098.446853 101077.282079 122085.000129 145735.076383 174246.934701
2025-04-13 52747.714772 66374.970674 81978.171951 101029.268595 123518.134610 149073.110312 180152.843804
2025-04-20 51491.006836 65712.507509 82170.702392 102462.713368 126635.952550 154334.239662 188283.714380
2025-04-27 50312.846709 65078.052714 82339.846090 103820.333582 129630.623538 159436.656077 196236.698000
2025-05-04 48871.575310 64056.137788 81986.068196 104500.566387 131780.991578 163524.384220 202993.340551
2025-05-11 47126.734338 62617.624405 81097.678586 104518.599900 133140.764374 166702.604439 208730.958200
2025-05-18 45742.400672 61577.159162 80653.151299 105042.836367 135090.894232 170581.286118 215323.365034
2025-05-25 44260.601735 60357.719062 79938.013165 105189.835400 136547.400286 173847.665551 221178.812254
2025-06-01 43463.066127 59972.434746 80231.276887 106563.457744 139496.994688 178922.036675 229242.348405
2025-06-08 41933.450952 58593.124530 79228.212846 106272.739893 140353.202027 181425.383216 234170.192999
2025-06-15 41317.220772 58371.940982 79669.761642 107785.459458 143448.719571 186678.535917 242488.852593
2025-06-22 40485.637176 57836.929855 79684.236492 108735.366472 145827.498709 191050.288440 249741.829825
2025-06-29 39357.390737 56872.290106 79112.743238 108906.950918 147202.860050 194168.729499 255448.792312
2025-07-06 38190.099255 55818.615916 78392.232247 108855.946824 148271.631102 196891.560231 260663.329803
2025-07-13 37738.304048 55710.285398 78892.788155 110378.577602 151350.006553 202142.261697 269064.854478
2025-07-20 37276.261819 55569.932855 79337.586393 111820.442666 154325.589682 207276.286976 277349.520334